Heure de pointe

Voilà, la « journée » est terminée. Dehors, toujours le même temps quasi-hivernal. Pourtant, hier, il a fait incroyablement beau. Ma sinusite est installée, je dois retourner chez le docteur la semaine prochaine. Elle semble désempirer, mais il m’arrive d’avoir une joue qui chauffe, ou un élancement dans le nez, ou bien encore une vague douleur au-dessus de l’œil, le tout bien-entendu assorti de démangeaisons dans le nez, et généralement le nez bouché. J’ai trouvé un spray qui fait des merveilles et me libère le nez pendant quelques heures. Enfin, je dis sinusite, je pense plutôt que c’est une inflammation de la colonne nasale provoquée par une allergie. Depuis que je suis arrivé au Japon, j’ai traversé plusieurs périodes où ma respiration a été mise à rude épreuve. Je ne parle pas des poumons, je parle du nez. Méga-allergie il y a deux ans, après la grosse tempête à Shinjuku Gyôen en février (je me souviens encore, pendant un mois, cet air épais mêlant pollen et sables venant de Chine, où l’on bétonnait à qui mieux mieux pour les Jeux Olympiques). Et puis il y a un an et demi, et aussi mes rhumes extrêmement courts durant à peine deux jours mais avec beaucoup de fièvre. La climatisation, ça peut être vraiment terrible. 夏風邪, les rhumes d’été. Là, c’est du côté des narines donc.
Je viens de passer à l’Institut Franco-Japonais, j’y ai rapporté deux vidéos et un roman que je n’ai pas lu. Un Tanizaki. Mais ça m’a vite gavé. À côté de moi, un type qui dort en ouvrant la bouche. Il pue l’ail. Ça ne donne pas envie de manger des ramen…
J’ai donc eu ma première leçon au sujet de la dette du Japon à partir de l’article du FT. C’est marrant, c’est l’élève qui travaille pour une assurance qui a continué à sourire malgré tout, plutôt fataliste. Kôji, un élève que j’aime bien et qui travaille et qui est Asset Manager s’est mis à tirer une sale tête, il a compris la situation en environ 5 minutes. Oui, il n’y a pas de solution, le Japon va faire faillite, et c’est leur épargne qui va disparaître. Il faut bien solder la « bulle », c’est donc le peuple qui va payer. Mais ce qui est étonnant, c’est que ces informations pourtant disponibles ne sont pas dans les journaux économiques Japonais, où en revanche on se lamente sur la Grèce…Je vous joins l’article du Financial Times, vous verrez, c’est imparable. L’épargne a commencé à décliner au Japon. Le gouvernement doit trouver des capitaux sur les marchés internationaux. Les Bonds japonais rapportent 1,30% mais le marché international est plutôt à 3/4% sur 10 ans. La dette représente 220% du PIB (Grèce, 95%). Dans les années qui viennent, le besoin de capitaux va augmenter avec le vieillissement de la population. Le Japon va donc devoir s’endetter à 4%, et donc la dette va augmenter proportionnellement (on estime 280% à 300% probable).
Ce n’est pas rationnel. Personne ne prêtera à un tel pays, qui plus est menacé d’un énorme tremblement de terre.
Les Japonais ont le droit de savoir que leurs élites les ont ruinés. Mais ces mêmes élites contrôlent la presse.
Ça va vraiment faire mal…
De Tokyo,
Suppaiku

En bonus, l’article que j’ai donne a mes eleves. Mais il y a bien pire…

Japan taps up Europe to fund debt

By Robin Harding and Lindsay Whipp in Tokyo

Published: February 22 2010 15:53 | Last updated: February 22 2010 19:09

The Japanese finance ministry’s debt management team is in Europe this week, on its first investor relations trip of 2010, seeking out new investors for the developed world’s most indebted government.

With nearly 95 per cent of its debt snugly held at home – helping to keep benchmark 10-year yields at a negligible 1.34 per cent – it would hardly seem worthwhile for the MoF to make such an effort; particularly at a time when the Greek crisis has shaken investor confidence in sovereign debt.

However, it wants to secure future investors for good reason.

The share of Japan’s $9,670bn national debt owned by Japan Post Bank and Japan Post Insurance is in decline despite the postal system devoting ever more of its balance sheet to government bonds.

A Financial Times analysis of the postal bodies’ accounts shows that, while they continue to buy more government bonds and financing bills, their share of the market peaked at 29 per cent in September 2008 and has already fallen by almost a full percentage point.

The publicly-owned postal system has been the largest net buyer of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) in recent years. Now that it is ’full up’, Tokyo will have to court less reliable private investors, including foreigners, to fund its debt.

“The issuing authorities would want to attract stable foreign investors rather than [speculative ones], but that is difficult with interest rates so low,” said Stefan Liiceanu, a senior strategist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. “They will also have to convince investors that fiscal consolidation is truly on the policy agenda.”

Recent calls for JP Bank to diversify its investments away from JGBs by Shizuka Kamei, minister for financial services and postal reform, has also raised concerns among investors.

This could put a dampener on any additional demand for JGBs the government could see if it decides to lift the Y10m cap on an individual’s deposits with JP Bank.

Lower postal buying does not mean that Japan is struggling to sell its bonds – interest rates on ten-year JGBs remain low and stable – but it does increase the risk that rates will have to rise to attract yield-hungry private investors in the future.

Japan’s postal savings, postal insurance and public pensions have been big buyers of government debt since 2001, when a reform allowed them to manage their own funds instead of depositing them with the Ministry of Finance. Postal savings’ share of the government’s debt rose from around 6 per cent in 2001 to 20 per cent by 2007, when JP Bank became a separate company, and its JGB holdings were merged with those of private banks in official statistics.

Analysis of JP Bank’s balance sheets since then shows that it has not kept up with the surge in debt issuance to fund Tokyo’s fiscal stimulus. From March 2008 until the end of 2009, the share of JP Bank’s assets invested in government debt rose from 74 per cent to 81 per cent, but its share of the market fell. Japan Post Insurance has upped its JGB holdings from 61.3 to 65.5 per cent of total assets but its share of the market has also dropped.

Both JP Bank and JP Insurance are suffering a structural decline in deposits. Total assets at JP Bank have fallen by 8 per cent since March 2008. Deposits at the bank have fallen for at least five years in a row and 2010 is a key year for deposit redemption.

Barclays’ Mr Liiceanu estimates that Japan Post would need at least 4.5 per cent annual growth in its deposit base to maintain its current JGB ownership share over the period to March 2023. Given the recent drop in deposits, this looks like a difficult task.

Mr Liiceanu says the shrinking balance sheets of public financial institutions are becoming a restraint and private domestic demand for JGBs cannot be expected to continue indefinitely at such low yield levels. Pension funds are also starting to pay out more and more as the population ages, reducing their ability to buy JGBs.

The main buyers of JGBs are now private Japanese banks and insurance companies. Banks are buying to meet new liquidity rules, because they lack alternatives in deflationary Japan and as they have excess deposits due to a lack of demand for corporate loans. Meanwhile insurers are buying JGBs to better match liabilities that they will have to mark to market from 2013.

There is a risk that private-sector bank buying could peter out, notes one bond salesperson at a domestic brokerage. Banks, which already have “huge profitable” JGB portfolios, could start to take profits, and if companies start investing again as the global economy recovers, that would lead to an outflow in corporate deposits.

Koji Shimamoto, chief strategist at BNP Paribas says: “I think the risk for JGBs will come after 2012 or 2013 because institutional change [at banks and insurers] will have peaked out and – the most essential point – because of Japan’s population ageing.”

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010.